Entertainment

2023 Oscars Best Cinematography Predictions


Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Sept. 15, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Cinematography

Courtesy of San Sebastian Film Festival

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: We’ll see if the science fiction and the action genres can get representation in the race with Claudio Miranda for “Top Gun: Maverick,” Russell Carpenter for “Avatar: The Way of Water” or Larkin Seiple for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” When it comes to “Top Gun,” if the studio wants to get into the best picture category, it needs to stay gain at least four tech noms to stay in the discussion, and cinematography could be its ticket as it looks “assured” recognition for best film editing, sound and visual effects (so far).

In terms of the overdue, Darius Khondji, whose impressive career has only managed to recognize once by the Academy — “Evita” (1996) — has two worthy entries under the guidance of two divisive films, “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” and “Armageddon Time.” Former Oscar-winning veterans are in the mix and expected to make noise with the Academy. Janusz Kaminski’s creation of the childhood of master filmmaker Steven Spielberg in “The Fabelmans” is another stellar effort from the two-time winner — “Schindler’s List” (1993) and “Saving Private Ryan” (1998). He’s also fresh off another nom for “West Side Story” (2021). His competition could come from the second most-nominated DP Roger Deakins who delivers the beauty to Sam Mendes’ “Empire of Light.”

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.

To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank Film Director of Photography Distributor
1 “The Fabelmans” Janusz Kaminski Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
2 “Empire of Light” Roger Deakins Searchlight Pictures
“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.
3 “Babylon” Linus Sandgren Paramount Pictures
Set in Hollywood during the transition from silent films to talkies, focusing on a mixture of historical & fictional characters.
4 “Top Gun: Maverick” Claudio Miranda Paramount Pictures
After thirty years, Maverick is still pushing the envelope as a top naval aviator, but must confront ghosts of his past when he leads TOP GUN’s elite graduates on a mission that demands the ultimate sacrifice from those chosen to fly it.
5 “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” Darius Khondji Netflix
A renowned Mexican journalist and documentary filmmaker living in Los Angeles, who, after being named the recipient of a prestigious international award, is compelled to return to his native country.
Next in Line
6 “Avatar: The Way of Water” Russell Carpenter 20th Century Studios
Jake Sully lives with his newfound family formed on the planet of Pandora. Once a familiar threat returns to finish what was previously started, Jake must work with Neytiri and the army of the Na’vi race to protect their planet.
7 “TÁR” Florian Hoffmeister Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
8 “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Larkin Seiple A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
9 “Women Talking” Luc Montpellier MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
10 “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Autumn Durald Marvel Studios
The nation of Wakanda is pitted against intervening world powers as they mourn the loss of their king T’Challa.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11 “The Banshees of Inisherin” Ben Davis Searchlight Pictures
12 “The Son” Ben Smithard Sony Pictures Classics
13 “The Wonder” Ari Wegner Netflix
14 “The Woman King” Polly Morgan TriStar Pictures
15 “Thirteen Lives” Sayombhu Mukdeeprom Amazon Studios/MGM
16 “The Batman” Greig Fraser Warner Bros.
17 “White Noise” Lol Crawley Netflix
18 “Nope” Hoyte van Hoytema Universal Pictures
19 “Amsterdam” Emmanuel Lubezki 20th Century Studios
20 “Devotion” Erik Messerschmidt Sony Pictures
Also In Contention
21 “Armageddon Time” Darius Khondji Focus Features
22 “Elvis” Mandy Walker Warner Bros.
23 “Don’t Worry Darling” Matthew Libatique Warner Bros
24 “Blonde” Chayse Irvin Netflix
25 “Three Thousand Years of Longing” John Seale MGM/United Artists Releasing
26 “RRR” K. K. Senthil Kumar Variance Films
27 “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” Steve Yedlin Netflix
28 “Decision to Leave” Kim Ji-yong Mubi
29 “The Pale Blue Eye” Masanobu Takayanagi Netflix
30 “Triangle of Sadness” Fredrik Wenzel Neon
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
“A Man Called Otto” Matthias Koenigswieser Sony Pictures
“After Yang” Benjamin Loeb A24
“Aftersun” Gregory Oke A24
“All Quiet on the Western Front” James Friend Netflix
“Ambulance” Roberto De Angelis Universal Pictures
“Amsterdam” Emmanuel Lubezki 20th Century Studios
“Argentina, 1985” Javier Julia Amazon Studios
“Armageddon Time” Darius Khondji Focus Features
“As They Made Us” David Feeney-Mosier Quiver
“Athena” Matias Boucard Netflix
“Avatar: The Way of Water” Russell Carpenter 20th Century Studios
“Babylon” Linus Sandgren Paramount Pictures
“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” Darius Khondji Netflix
“Beast” Philippe Rousselot Universal Pictures
“Black Adam” Lawrence Sher Warner Bros
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Autumn Durald Marvel Studios
“Blonde” Chayse Irvin Netflix
“Bodies Bodies Bodies” Jasper Wolf A24
“Bones & All” Arseni Khachaturan MGM/United Artists Releasing
“Nanny” Rina Yang Amazon Studios
“Both Sides of the Blade” Eric Gautier IFC Films
“Broker” Hong Kyung-pyo Neon
“Bros” Brandon Trost Universal Pictures
“Bullet Train” Jonathan Sela Sony Pictures
“Call Jane” Greta Zozula Roadside Attractions
“Catherine Called Birdy” Laurie Rose Amazon Studios
“Causeway” Diego García A24/Apple Original Films
“Cha Cha Real Smooth” Cristina Dunlap Apple Original Films
“Close” Frank van den Eeden A24
“Corsage” Judith Kaufmann IFC Films
“Crimes of the Future” Douglas Koch Neon
“Death on the Nile” Haris Zambarloukos 20th Century Studios
“Decision to Leave” Kim Ji-yong Mubi
“Devotion” Erik Messerschmidt Sony Pictures
“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” John Mathieson Marvel Studios
“Don’t Worry Darling” Matthew Libatique Warner Bros
“Elvis” Mandy Walker Warner Bros.
“Emily the Criminal” Jeff Bierman Roadside Attractions
“Empire of Light” Roger Deakins Searchlight Pictures
“EO” Michał Dymek Janus Films and Sideshow
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” Larkin Seiple A24
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” Steve Yedlin Netflix
“God’s Country” Andrew Wheeler IFC Films
“Good Night Oppy” John Beck-Hofmann, David Paul Jacobson Amazon Studios
“Happening” Laurent Tangy IFC Films
“Holy Spider” Nadim Carlsen Utopia
“Hunt” Lee Mo-gae No U.S. Distribution
“Hustle” Zak Mulligan Netflix
“I Love My Dad” Steven Capitano Calitri Magnolia Pictures
“I Wanna Dance With Somebody” Barry Ackroyd Sony Pictures
“In Good Hands” Martin Szecsanov Netflix
“Lady Chatterley’s Lover” Benoît Delhomme Netflix
“Lightyear” Jeremy Lasky, Ian Megibben Pixar
“Living” Jamie D. Ramsay Sony Pictures Classics
“Lyle, Lyle Crocodile” Javier Aguirresarobe Sony Pictures
“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” Bianca Cline A24
“Master Gardener” Alexander Dynan No U.S. Distribution
“Master” Charlotte Hornsby Amazon Studios
“Men” Rob Hardy A24
“Montana Story” Giles Nuttgens Bleecker Street
“Mr. Malcolm’s List” Tony Miller Bleecker Street
“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” Felix Wiedemann Focus Features
“My Policeman” Ben Davis Amazon Studios
“Nitram” Germain McMicking IFC Films
“Nope” Hoyte van Hoytema Universal Pictures
“Official Competition” Arnau Valls Colomer IFC Films
“One Fine Morning” Denis Lenoir Sony Pictures Classics
“Pearl” Eliot Rockett A24
“Persuasion” Joe Anderson Netflix
“R.M.N.” Tudor Vladimir Panduru IFC Films
“Raymond & Ray” Igor Jadue-Lillo Apple Original Films
“Return to Seoul” Thomas Favel Sony Pictures Classics
“RRR” K. K. Senthil Kumar Variance Films
“Saint Omer” Claire Mithon Neon/Super
“See How They Run” Jamie D. Ramsay Searchlight Pictures
“She Said” Natasha Braier Universal Pictures
“Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” Brian Burgoyne Focus Features
“TÁR” Florian Hoffmeister Focus Features
“The Banshees of Inisherin” Ben Davis Searchlight Pictures
“The Batman” Greig Fraser Warner Bros.
“The Eight Mountains” Ruben Impens M2 Pictures
“The Fabelmans” Janusz Kaminski Universal Pictures
“The Good Nurse” Jody Lee Lipes Netflix
“The Gray Man” Stephen F. Windon Netflix
“The Greatest Beer Run Ever” Sean Porter Apple Original Films
“The Inspection” Lachlan Milne A24
“The Lost King” Zac Nicholson Warner Bros.
“The Menu” Peter Deming Searchlight Pictures
“The Northman” Jarin Blaschke Focus Features
“The Pale Blue Eye” Masanobu Takanyagi Netflix
“The Phantom of the Open” Kit Fraser Sony Pictures Classics
“The Silent Twins” Jakub Kijowski Focus Features
“The Son” Ben Smithard Sony Pictures Classics
“The Swimmers” Christopher Ross Netflix
“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent” Nigel Buck Lionsgate
“The Whale” Matthew Libatique A24
“The Woman King” Polly Morgan TriStar Pictures
“The Wonder” Ari Wegner Netflix
“Thirteen Lives” Sayombhu Mukdeeprom Amazon Studios/MGM
“Thor: Love and Thunder” Barry Idoine Marvel Studios
“Three Thousand Years of Longing” John Seale MGM/United Artists Releasing
“Ticket to Paradise” Ole Bratt Birkeland Universal Pictures
“Till” Bobby Bukowski Orion/United Artists Releasing
“Top Gun: Maverick” Claudio Miranda Paramount Pictures
“Tori and Lokita” Benoît Dervaux Janus Films
“Triangle of Sadness” Fredrik Wenzel Neon
“Turn Every Page” Mott Hupfel Sony Pictures Classics
“Turning Red” Mahyar Abousaeedi, Jonathan Pytko Pixar
“Vengeance” Lyn Moncrief Focus Features
“War Pony” David Gallego Picturehouse Entertainment
“White Noise” Lol Crawley Netflix
“Women Talking” Luc Montpellier MGM/United Artists Releasing

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.

2022 category winner: “Dune” (Warner Bros.) – Greig Fraser

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.



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